2021: What does the K-Shaped involve?

November 16, 2020. That’s when these lines start to be written. It is also the time when ETIs have focused on their economic balance sheet. No one is available. No one is communicating. Everyone is busy preparing for 2021. From a few sources in the ministries, we know that companies are worried and are thinking about finding new growth drivers. They are looking. They are waiting for the State, which is actively implementing its “France Export” check with this in mind. A relevant initiative? It could be translated in other ways: “Work it out among yourselves, we finance part of your operations, but we can’t be in the oven and the mill”. Everyone observes the State, waits, wonders how to do tomorrow… saying to themselves that we should do as we did yesterday, because otherwise how can we do it?

However, there will be winners and losers. The time of reckoning is necessary. We also parade among ourselves, entrepreneurs and managers, affirming that the turnover has been achieved, that everything is going well. This is what you hear in the streets of Paris. Apparently everything is fine. However, the INSEE and the international authorities are quite clear and speak of a recession in the whole West. A recession means that there are winners and losers. In the stock market, we know that the winners are the digital companies. France Relance has also laid out its investment and operational strategy to defend the sovereignty of France, France with its European allies, themselves having adopted recovery plans (or hypothesis of plans).

Recovery will happen, that’s for sure! And the arrival of the first 90% viable vaccine heralds a better tomorrow for mobility, for work. But economic dilation is also a reality. Our investigation has led us to see certain emerging sectors, those that are driven by state interventionism. The others… They try to plug the gaps and avoid communicating. The K-shaped recovery is becoming a reality. What does it really mean?

We’ll be back in December and January with three articles exploring some of the key issues in the French context and possible opportunities, particularly in a more interesting European domestic market.